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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/02/2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks at 6:40 PM ET. The Pacers had won three games in a row in this series before their 115-92 upset loss on the road as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bucks still trail in the series by a 3-2 margin and need to win this game to force a decisive Game 7 back in Milwaukee. Indiana is an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia 76ers play at home against the New York Knicks at 9:10 p.m. ET. The 76ers have won two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset victory on the road as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. The Knicks hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with an upset victory. Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 198.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on ESPN. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Boston Bruins on TBS at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Maple Leafs ended a two-game losing streak in this series with a 2-1 victory on the road on Tuesday. The Bruins hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can close things out and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with a victory. Toronto is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Marlins have won two games in a row after their 4-1 victory against the Rockies yesterday. Miami turn to Edward Cabrera as their starting pitcher to face Colorado’s Peter Lambert. The Marlins are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees ended a two-game losing streak with a 2-0 victory against the Orioles on Wednesday. Carlos Rodon takes the mound of New York to battle against a starting pitcher yet to be named for Baltimore. The New York Mets play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Mets lost for the second time in their last three games in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday. New York sends out Adrian Houser to face Chicago’s Ben Brown. The Mets are a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are on a four-game winning streak after a 6-2 victory against the Giants on Wednesday. Josh Winckowski takes the hill for Boston to go against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. The Red Sox are a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers host the Washington Nationals at 2:35 p.m. ET. The Rangers had won two games in a row before a 1-0 loss to the Nationals yesterday. Texas turns to Nathan Eovaldi to duel against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. The Rangers are a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros had won three games in a row before a 3-2 loss in ten innings to the Guardians on Wednesday. Spencer Arrighetti gets the start for Houston to pitch against Cleveland’s Logan Allen. The Astros are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5.

Big Al's 2024 Kentucky Derby Preview

The 2024 Kentucky Derby -- to be run this Saturday at the newly renovated Churchill Downs -- will likely be known for the horses that aren't in the starting gate as much as for the ones that are.  That's because it's possible that the two of the best 3YOs in the country won't be among the 20 starters because they are trained by Bob Baffert.  Baffert, you may recall, had a winning horse later disqualified from the 2021 Derby for a doping violation and Churchill Downs has banned the conditioner ever since.  Nonetheless, the landmark 150th running of the Great Race still has plenty in store for serious handicappers and casual fans alike.  So with that in mind, below we present our preview of the Contenders, Pretenders, and live longshots of the greatest two minutes in sports:    Contenders:    #2 - Sierra Leone.  For most horses, the #2 post position in a 20-horse Derby could be the kiss of death, but this son of Gun Runner is a stone-cold closer and he's likely going to retreat to the back of the pack anyway, so the 2 hole probably won't matter and in fact may even benefit horse and rider -- in this case, Tyler Gafflione -- alike.  If the pace is hot enough and Sierra Leone can navigate his way around or through 19 other horses, then he could get trainer Chad Brown -- who has won just about everything else in horse racing -- his first Derby victory.  You may not want to bet on him as the likely 2nd favorite (after Fierceness) but you can't deny his talent and the fact that, if there is enough speed in here, this horse will be flying late.   #4 - Catching Freedom.  Here's a riddle for you.  How can you win the Derby without ever having stepped foot (or hoof) in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May?  Just ask trainer Brad Cox what that's like.  Cox had to wait more than a year for his horse Mandaloun to be declared the winner of the 2021 Derby after the official winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified.  So Cox -- one of the most successful trainers in the U.S. over the past several years -- has entered three horses this year in an attempt to find out what it really feels like to win the World's most prestigious horse race.  Of the three, this son of Constitution is the most accomplished, having won the Louisiana Derby in his last start.  At 1 3/16 mile, that race is the one that's closest in distance to the Derby's 10 furlongs.      Pretenders (likely over-bet horses):    #17 - Fierceness. The likely Derby favorite is an all-or-nothing horse.  When this son of City of Light gets a clean break and no other horses are in his way or bumping him, he can run like Secretariat.  This was the case the both last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and his most recent victory -- a 13-length romp in the Florida Derby.  But when things don't go his way -- he breaks slowly, gets jostled, etc. -- he seems to pack it in.  So what are the chances that everything goes his way on Saturday with 19 other horses trying to win this race and get draped in a blanket of roses?  It would take a lot more than his likely 2-1 odds to get us to find out.  He's on a bad race/good race streak right now (over his last four starts) and it doesn't get much better than his last so it's time for a letdown.    #11 - Forever Young.  Sometimes history is on your side, and sometimes it isn't.  There's no question that Forever Young has an impressive resume coming up to the Derby.  As the only undefeated horse in the field, you could say his resume is the best.  But when foreign runners come to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May -- and lately that means Japanese runners -- they leave empty-handed.  Can this son of Real Steel buck the trend and be the first to take home the Roses?  Sure he can.  But when it comes to Japanese horses in the Derby, I'm from Missouri -- SHOW ME.  And until they do, all bets -- including mine -- are off.   Live Longshots:    #3 - Mystik Dan.  If you believe in speed figures, then you're probably going to put some money on Fierceness who has registered the highest numbers in this field.  But the horse with the second highest figures -- both as a 2-year-old as well as in 2024 -- is this son of Goldencents.  The Kenny McPeek-trained runner put up a huge figure when winning the Southwest Stakes by eight lengths and although he couldn't repeat that effort when he stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan ran a credible 3rd despite having all kinds of trouble.  The McPeek/(jockey Brian) Hernandez combination is one that's very familiar with Churchill downs and in fact Mystik Dan has a 7-length victory over this surface last year.  There are enough knocks against this horse that you are likely to get a better price than his 20-1 morning line, making him one of the best values in the race.   #7 - Honor Marie.  Chances are even if you follow horse racing you haven't heard of trainer Whitworth Beckman.  The young conditioner worked for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown before striking out on his own in 2021.  This son of Honor Code is Beckman's first Kentucky Derby horse, but it almost certainly won't be his last.  Honor Marie has the type of improving form we like to see coming up to the Derby, including a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race.  Another 1/16 of a mile and Beckman's horse would have likely been the winner and wouldn't be considered such a longshot on Saturday.  Beckman is sticking with little known Ben Curtis in the saddle and that might be a problem were it not for the fact that Curtis rides regularly here at Churchill Downs.  Another 20-1 horse with a huge shot.    #15 - Domestic Product.  The other Chad Brown entrant in the field, this son of Practical Joke last won the Tampa Bay Derby after a long tote delay and he was able to overcome a ridiculously slow early pace in that race and still rally to get up from mid-pack.  The resulting speed figure from that race is -- not surprisingly -- low, but it is also misleading because of the way the lead horses were crawling in the first half.  The other reason Domestic Product is a bigger longshot than he should be is because the Tampa Bay Derby was eight weeks ago and few horses have been successful in the Derby after that much time off.  But Domestic Product has been training like a monster and he will also get one of the best jockeys in the world, Irad Ortiz, to pilot him, making him about as live as a horse can be.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite, with the total set at 198.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks travel to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 207.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Los Angeles Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favor with an over/under of 6.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play in Detroit against the Tigers, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Kansas City Royals at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play in New York against the Mets as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the San Francisco Giants. Two MLB games start at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League concludes on CBS at 3 PM ET. Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Paris Saint-Germain in a pick ‘em match at BetMGM with a total of 3. 

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